Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
